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Russell, Bertrand Arthur William 3rd, Earl, 1872-1970

"The Problem of China"


The estimated population of the Chinese Empire (exclusive of Tibet) is
given, on the basis of this census, as 329,542,000, while the population
of Tibet is estimated at 1,500,000. Estimates which have been made at
various other dates are given as follows (p. 2):
A.D. A.D.
1381 59,850,000 / 143,125,225
1412 66,377,000 1760--203,916,477
1580 60,692,000 1761 205,293,053
1662 21,068,000 1762 198,214,553
1668 25,386,209 1790 155,249,897
/ 23,312,200 / 307,467,200
1710 --27,241,129 1792- 333,000,000
1711 28,241,129 / 362,467,183
1736 125,046,245 1812--360,440,000
/ 157,343,975 1842 413,021,000
1743 149,332,730 1868 404,946,514
\ 150,265,475 1881 380,000,000
1753 103,050,600 1882 381,309,000
1885 377,636,000
These figures suffice to show how little is known about the population
of China. Not only are widely divergent estimates made in the same year
(_e.g._ 1760), but in other respects the figures are incredible. Mr.
Putnam Weale might contend that the drop from 60 millions in 1580 to 21
millions in 1662 was due to the wars leading to the Manchu conquest. But
no one can believe that between 1711 and 1736 the population increased
from 28 millions to 125 millions, or that it doubled between 1790 and
1792.


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